The planning fallacy is a cognitive bias that refers to the tendency for individuals to underestimate the time, resources, and effort required to complete a task or project, while simultaneously overestimating their ability to complete it. This can lead to unrealistic expectations and a lack of contingency planning, which can ultimately result in missed deadlines and unmet goals.
One factor that contributes to the planning fallacy is the optimism bias, which is the tendency for individuals to overestimate the likelihood of positive outcomes and underestimate the likelihood of negative outcomes. This optimism can lead individuals to believe that a task will be easier and quicker to complete than it actually is.
Another factor that contributes to the planning fallacy is the availability heuristic, which is the tendency for individuals to base their estimates on the most easily available information, rather than considering all relevant information. This can lead to a lack of consideration for potential obstacles or unforeseen events that may impact the completion of the task.
The planning fallacy can have serious consequences, both personally and professionally. In a professional setting, missed deadlines and unmet goals can lead to a loss of credibility and trust, as well as financial consequences. In a personal setting, the planning fallacy can lead to disappointment and frustration when individuals are unable to complete tasks or meet their own expectations.
Planning fallacy - Wikipedia
Planning fallacy - The Decision Lab
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Meaning & Examples of Planning Fallacy - Harappa