Posts

Skip the math, but keep the model

Scratching the surface of some big ideas

The dynamics of solutions in unique contexts and complex environments

Exploring decisions and uncertainty with Paul Krugman

Noise-cancellation headphones for the organization

Organizational behaviors that improve decision quality

Exploring the role of human and machine

Insights on organizational design from Herbert Simon

Applying new ideas to old ways

Exploring ideas at the crossroads between the rationality discourse, notions of complexity, and radical uncertainty

Some timeless principles from Don Reinertsen

We need intentional dialog

A modest proposal

A look at how organizations construct reality, apply meaning, and make decisions

3 challenges to help bring theory into practice

learnings from this year and predictions looking ahead

Common themes from the learning journey

Challenging your views, probabilistically

Giving decisions a moment in the spotlight

Managing uncertainty with a learning matrix

Expanding on the product operations model with decision-centric approaches

The invisible force in your decision architecture

Carving out time for strategic thinking

A week in the life of a decision

The negative side-effects of goal-setting

'Effectual' reasoning, means vs ends, and the explore-exploit dilemma

Deconstructing portfolio management

Taking a deeper look at how OKRs influence strategic decision making (a multi-part series)

Rituals that can create new routines for leadership teams

Integrating inclusive, exclusive, proven, and aspirational strategies

Exploring the principles of a decision-driven approach

Leading with questions, not looking for answers

Taking steps to limit accidental complexity in your organization

Summarizing some of the key learnings and major themes covered over the last six months

Many teams stumble through their decision making process because they don’t make time for discourse separated from the decision point.

Deciding how to decide when building strategy

Exploring the concept of behavioral nudges - subtle cues that influence behavior towards desirable outcomes by making specific options more attractive or convenient, while preserving the freedom to choose.

Taking advantage of inevitable change and adapting to improvisation

Psychological Safety may be misunderstood as something that is 'comfortable' when in reality it's a model for dealing with necessary dissent in a productive way.

Optionality is critical in strategic decision making and it starts with how we think

The story of how 'Crew Resource Manage' transformed airline safety and a general exploration of how teams can and should foster productive disagreement.

We often think that strategic clarity helps make a strategy more effective but it may keep people from believing in it. Strategic ambiguity is a concept that points to people needing a bit of ambiguity in the communication of a strategy. This thread talks about the benefits of strategic ambiguity and some “smells” that your strategy is too specific.

We crave certainty - and detailed plans give us a false sense of certainty. In this thread, we explore whether or not we have the cognitive toolset for planning, how we mentally 'construct' strategies, and how we update our mental models to change course when necessary.

Could OR tools such as critical path analysis, network optimization, and queuing theory have clear applications for product leaders to optimize planning, staffing, and decision-making processes?

Conviction as a superpower, why we tend to be overly optimistic, and how outcome trees help us map potential outcomes

Exploring how goals help teams make better decisions, strategic misrepresentation, and the power of 'Even Over' statements

There's quite a bit we can learn from parallels to research on social norms and how culture develops - this thread explores a piece of that 👉

This is an excerpt from a newsletter post exploring the value (if any) of bias education and whether or not optical illusions are a good way to illustrate the impact of cognitive biases - or at least our unavoidable ignorance of them.

With artificial intelligence tools 'going mainstream', we see a flood of conversations that say something like "will AI replace [role]?". This is exploring the difference in humans and machines from the perspective of decision making.

We often think of communication as a post-decisions activity, but how can bring people along for the process to help smooth over even the most unpopular decisions?

We might often think about a 'good' decision as having a positive or expected outcome, but there's so much out of our own control (luck). A good decision is the result of good dialog, processes, and communication.