Models & TechniquesPostsPlaybooks
About
OverviewGetting StartedPrinciples
More
TalksBias LibraryPeopleLicensingLogout
John May

John May

Uncertainty Project Co-Founder, Atlassian, Motorola
People
John May
Tools & Techniques
Threads
Talks

The Mediating Assessments Protocol

A method from the book "Noise", designed by Daniel Kahneman and Olivier Sibony, "with noise mitigation as a primary objective".

Wardley Maps

Visual tool for strategic business decision-making based on value chain evolution and market maturity.

Shared Visions

Vision statements influence strategy processes. Done correctly, they tap intrinsic motivation, while poorly crafted visions can lead to organizational skepticism.

Assumptions Mapping

Systematically identifying and testing underlying assumptions through targeted experiments

Causal Loop Diagrams

Modeling dynamic relationships and feedback loops in systems, enhancing understanding and decision-making in complex organizational environments.

Scenario Planning

Manage future risks by discussing possible outcomes, focusing on external factors, identifying key uncertainties, and challenging biases.

Assertive Inquiry

Intentionally crafting the words and tone used in conversations to promote effective dialog, not gridlocked disagreements

Vanishing Options Test

A divergent thinking tool to help overcome anchoring bias and identify different options by eliminating the existing options

Decision Rights

Leaders delegate decision making by creating boundaries of authority. Decision rights enables the speed and effectiveness of decentralized decision making.

Causal Decision Diagrams (CDD)

Causal Decision Diagrams help decision-makers visually capture the causal relationships between desired goals, the different choices of levers to pull, and any intermediate results that connect them.

Exploring possibilities, together

Examples of Strategy 5x5s for business and product leaders

May 2, 2025

Improving Strategy Development with a Strategy 5x5

Effectively explore the possibilities using an enabling constraint

March 30, 2025

Are We Gonna Win?

Tracking Uncertainty with Win Probability Charts

March 10, 2025

Value-Based Strategy

Competitive strategy demands focusing on leverage, not spreading resources thin

January 6, 2025

Building Competitive Power

Competition and Strategic Decisions - Part 2

October 15, 2024

Competition and Strategic Decisions

Anyone creating value has a customer and has competition

October 15, 2024

Understanding the Value of Information

Strategic Decision Making with Applied Information Economics

July 16, 2024

An Argument for Probabilistic Thinking

Reframing the challenge as getting from less sure to more sure

July 1, 2024

Prioritization and Uncertainty

Thinking about the Value of Information

June 1, 2024

Bayesian Thinking and Product Risks

Skip the math, but keep the model

May 9, 2024

Exploring Causality and Complexity in Strategy

Scratching the surface of some big ideas

May 1, 2024

Thinking more like an economist

Exploring decisions and uncertainty with Paul Krugman

April 20, 2024

Applying Decision Hygiene to yield better judgment

Noise-cancellation headphones for the organization

April 12, 2024

Patterns of Decision Architecture

Organizational behaviors that improve decision quality

April 5, 2024

Designing for aligned autonomy

Insights on organizational design from Herbert Simon

March 14, 2024

Getting started, navigating uncertainty

Applying new ideas to old ways

March 14, 2024

Bringing an Economic View to Decision Architectures

Some timeless principles from Don Reinertsen

January 31, 2025

What the Debate on WFH Isn’t Talking About

We need intentional dialog

January 31, 2025

Let’s make ‘Portfolio’ a verb

A modest proposal

February 1, 2024

Reflecting on the last six months of the Uncertainty Project

Common themes from the learning journey

December 15, 2023

Building a Belief Portfolio

Challenging your views, probabilistically

December 8, 2023

On Being Decision-Centric

Giving decisions a moment in the spotlight

November 20, 2023

Balancing Learning and Performance

Managing uncertainty with a learning matrix

January 31, 2025

Power and Decision Rights

The invisible force in your decision architecture

October 28, 2023

Finding Time for the Future

Carving out time for strategic thinking

October 26, 2023

Using a Decision Architecture

A week in the life of a decision

October 13, 2023

Managing uncertainty and risk with portfolios

Deconstructing portfolio management

September 29, 2023

Habits to help leaders navigate uncertainty 

Rituals that can create new routines for leadership teams

September 7, 2023

Unraveling Uncertainty and Complexity

Taking steps to limit accidental complexity in your organization

August 2, 2023

Designing a Decision Architecture

Deciding how to decide when building strategy

July 13, 2023

How Uncertainty Influences Strategy with Barry O'Reilly

March 10, 2025

Scaling Agile Transformations Across Businesses with John May

October 6, 2023

Decision Making in an Asynchronous Company

September 7, 2023

Decision Making in a high-Speed Environment

August 1, 2023

Managing the Product Roadmap Amidst Uncertainty

July 8, 2023

Dealing with Uncertainty in Portfolio Management

July 8, 2023